Olmos duplex
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Stress test
10000 Olmos — Stress Test
Adjust the sliders to see how the deal responds over 30 years. Click a preset to load a scenario.
Scenario Presets
Base Case
Can't Raise Rents
Tax Shock
Insurance Crisis
Extended Vacancy
Major Repair
2008-Style Crash
Perfect Storm
Rent Assumptions
Unit A (vacant at acquisition)
$2,000
Market rate for unit being newly leased
Unit B locked rent (Y1–Y2)
$1,500
Existing tenant locked through Oct 2027
Unit B reset (Oct 2027)
$1,900
Market reset when current lease ends
Annual rent growth Y3+
2.5%
Vacancy days per year
14 days
Combined across both units. 14 days ≈ 4% vacancy
Expense Stress
Property tax growth
4%
Annual. DCAD historical: 9.5%/yr 2014–2024
Insurance growth
4%
Annual. TX 2024 was +18.7%
One-time repair shock (Y1)
$0
Beyond reserves: foundation, HVAC, sewer event
Maintenance reserve
8%
% of gross rent set aside for repairs
Financing & Exit
Refi rate (Y4 onward)
8.461%
Set lower to model rate-cut refi. 8.461% = no refi
Extra HELOC payment (Y1+)
$0/mo
Extra payment ABOVE property contribution + $734 minimum. Stacks as additional acceleration.
Aggressive payment starts (year)
Never
When to ramp up the extra payment. 0 = same throughout
Aggressive extra payment
$1,000/mo
New extra payment level when ramp-up kicks in
Property pays HELOC first?
Yes (recommended)
No
When ON: ALL positive property cash flow sweeps to HELOC principal (accelerating payoff). You supplement only the shortfall to hit the $734 minimum.
Property appreciation
3.5%
Annual. Set negative to model crash
What This Scenario Says
Adjust sliders to see how the deal responds.
Year 1 Property Cash Flow
—
After all property expenses
Year 1 Out-of-Pocket / mo
—
Property shortfall + HELOC payment
Year 3 Property Cash Flow
—
After Oct 2027 rent reset
Year 3 Out-of-Pocket / mo
—
Household total at Year 3
30-Year Cumulative Cash
—
Total household cash in/out
Year 30 Net Position
—
Equity − total cash invested
30-Year Monthly Cash Flow Trajectory
Out-of-pocket monthly cost. Hover any year for detail. Vertical line marks Oct 2027 rent reset event.
Positive cash flow
Negative cash flow
Oct 2027 rent reset
HELOC Paydown Trajectory (30-Year View)
How the HELOC balance burns down over the full 30-year term. Green vertical line marks when the HELOC is fully paid off.
HELOC balance
Annual interest paid
Annual principal paid
Year-by-year HELOC detail
Year
Avg Monthly Payment
From Property CF
From Pocket
Interest Paid
Principal Paid
End Balance
Long-Term Trajectory Diagnostic
Why cash flow trends up, down, or sideways over the long hold
The annual race — year-over-year change in steady-state (Y10 → Y11)
+ Rent growth
− Property tax growth
− Insurance growth
= Net annual change
to cash flow
Year 1 Monthly Breakdown
Where the money goes each month
Reserves Survival Indicator
How many months of $5K personal reserves the worst negative cash flow burns through
Critical (< 6 mo)
Caution (6–18 mo)
Healthy (> 18 mo)